← Explore · Market 2853082

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

62.5% implied · bid 60.0¢ · ask 65.0¢

The market prices this at 61.0%, down 7.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.

Implied probability61.0%

Bid / ask / mid60.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 62.5¢

Spread5.0¢ (8.0%)

Change 24h-7.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,267

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$151 / $124

Imbalance9% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score25.1 / 100

RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.46

RSI (14, hourly)25.4

Realized vol 7d6.13pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%