← Explore · Market 2853119
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?
3.5% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 4.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability4.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 4.0¢ / 3.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (28.6%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 14% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$347
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10,188 / $1,046
Imbalance14% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.14
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d8.04pt
Change 1h-0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 51d 21h.
Time to resolve51d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%