← Explore · Market 2853134
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
8.5% implied · bid 7.0¢ · ask 10.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 8.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (35.3%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$151
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$287 / $573
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.59
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.42pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 112d 21h.
Time to resolve112d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%