← Explore · Market 2853462
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
31.0% implied · bid 30.0¢ · ask 32.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 39.0%, down 17.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability39.0%
Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 32.0¢ / 31.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h-17.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$60
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$55 / $62
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.95
RSI (14, hourly)63.2
Realized vol 7d3.59pt
Change 1h+3.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 41d 21h.
Time to resolve41d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%