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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

61.0% implied · bid 60.0¢ · ask 62.0¢

The market prices this at 69.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability69.0%

Bid / ask / mid60.0¢ / 62.0¢ / 61.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (3.3%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 30% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,393

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$538 / $633

Imbalance30% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.6 / 100

RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.20

RSI (14, hourly)60.9

Realized vol 7d4.18pt

Change 1h-0.50pt

Resolves in 52d 9h.

Time to resolve52d 9h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%