← Explore · Market 2863245

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?

66.5% implied · bid 47.0¢ · ask 86.0¢

The market prices this at 66.5%, flat over 24h, on a 39.0¢ spread.

Implied probability66.5%

Bid / ask / mid47.0¢ / 86.0¢ / 66.5¢

Spread39.0¢ (58.6%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance15% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score0.0 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.93

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d7.87pt

Change 1h+3.00pt

Resolves in 21d 21h.

Time to resolve21d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%