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← Explore · Market 2910438

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

2.5% implied · bid 2.4¢ · ask 2.6¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 2.5%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability2.5%
Bid / ask / mid2.4¢ / 2.6¢ / 2.5¢
Spread0.2¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h-0.45pt
Change 7d-7.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 60/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$313,856
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14,521 / $7,374
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)18
Liquidity score59.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.11
RSI (14, hourly)16.9
Realized vol 7d0.44pt
Change 1h+0.05pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 7d 2h.

Time to resolve7d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth