← Explore · Market 2928823
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?
52.5% implied · bid 50.0¢ · ask 55.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 58.0%, down 18.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability58.0%
Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 55.0¢ / 52.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h-18.50pt
Change 7d-17.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 19% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$874
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$498 / $53
Imbalance19% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.46
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.61pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 14d 22h.
Time to resolve14d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%