a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 3008043

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

66.5% implied · bid 66.0¢ · ask 67.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 66.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability66.0%
Bid / ask / mid66.0¢ / 67.0¢ / 66.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-18.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$877
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,904 / $548
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.12
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.37pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 36d 22h.

Time to resolve36d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth