← Explore · Market 3072351
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
73.0% implied · bid 71.0¢ · ask 75.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 78.0%, down 6.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability78.0%
Bid / ask / mid71.0¢ / 75.0¢ / 73.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (5.5%)
Change 24h-6.50pt
Change 7d-8.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 30% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$111
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$537 / $769
Imbalance30% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.96
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.31pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 128d 22h.
Time to resolve128d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%