← Explore · Market 3072352
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
46.5% implied · bid 34.0¢ · ask 59.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 53.0%, down 8.0pt over 24h, on a 25.0¢ spread.
Implied probability53.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 59.0¢ / 46.5¢
Spread25.0¢ (53.8%)
Change 24h-8.00pt
Change 7d-6.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$666
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.06
RSI (14, hourly)45.2
Realized vol 7d1.57pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 128d 22h.
Time to resolve128d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%