← Explore · Market 3072353
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
27.5% implied · bid 27.0¢ · ask 28.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.0%, down 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability31.0%
Bid / ask / mid27.0¢ / 28.0¢ / 27.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-8.00pt
Change 7d-6.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,852
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$232 / $80
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.61
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d1.93pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 128d 22h.
Time to resolve128d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%