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← Explore · Market 3072353

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

27.5% implied · bid 27.0¢ · ask 28.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 31.0%, down 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability31.0%
Bid / ask / mid27.0¢ / 28.0¢ / 27.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-8.00pt
Change 7d-6.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,852
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$232 / $80
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.61
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d1.93pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 128d 22h.

Time to resolve128d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth