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← Explore · Market 3072354

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?

9.0% implied · bid 8.0¢ · ask 10.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 10.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$78 / $72
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.8σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.85
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 128d 22h.

Time to resolve128d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth