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Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

71.0% implied · bid 70.4¢ · ask 71.5¢

The market prices this at 70.6%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.

Implied probability70.6%

Bid / ask / mid70.4¢ / 71.5¢ / 71.0¢

Spread1.1¢ (1.6%)

Change 24h+0.05pt

Change 7d-1.40pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 23% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$766 / $681

Imbalance23% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.2 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.51

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d1.65pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 128d 22h.

Time to resolve128d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%