← Explore · Market 3072357
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
44.5% implied · bid 42.0¢ · ask 47.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 51.0%, down 13.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid42.0¢ / 47.0¢ / 44.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (11.2%)
Change 24h-13.00pt
Change 7d-9.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$735
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$129 / $195
Imbalance15% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 37 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.09
RSI (14, hourly)36.8
Realized vol 7d3.01pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 128d 22h.
Time to resolve128d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%