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Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

22.5% implied · bid 22.0¢ · ask 23.0¢

The market prices this at 23.0%, down 6.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability23.0%

Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 23.0¢ / 22.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (4.4%)

Change 24h-6.00pt

Change 7d-10.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,911

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$62 / $46

Imbalance3% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.1 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.05

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d2.89pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 128d 22h.

Time to resolve128d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%