← Explore · Market 3072359
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
13.5% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 15.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$63 / $79
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.65
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.74pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 128d 22h.
Time to resolve128d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%