a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 3128886

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

70.2% implied · bid 69.8¢ · ask 70.5¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 71.0%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.

Implied probability71.0%
Bid / ask / mid69.8¢ / 70.5¢ / 70.2¢
Spread0.7¢ (1.0%)
Change 24h-1.15pt
Change 7d-3.45pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 17% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$32,513
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15,030 / $10,924
Imbalance17% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score59.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 20 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.78
RSI (14, hourly)20.2
Realized vol 7d0.74pt
Change 1h-0.65pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 129d 4h.

Time to resolve129d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth