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← Explore · Market 3128887

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

28.5% implied · bid 28.0¢ · ask 29.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 30.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability30.0%
Bid / ask / mid28.0¢ / 29.0¢ / 28.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.5%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7d-6.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 31% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$100,191
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15,884 / $3,349
Imbalance31% bid
Large trades (>$1k)12
Liquidity score54.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.05
RSI (14, hourly)16.7
Realized vol 7d1.13pt
Change 1h-1.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 37d 3h.

Time to resolve37d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth