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US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

46.5% implied · bid 46.0¢ · ask 47.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 46.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability46.0%
Bid / ask / mid46.0¢ / 47.0¢ / 46.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-9.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 24% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$52,582
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,965 / $2,762
Imbalance24% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score48.4 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.46
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d0.95pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 68d 3h.

Time to resolve68d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth