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Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?

3.6% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 4.2¢

The market prices this at 4.2%, down 69.9pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.

Implied probability4.2%

Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 4.2¢ / 3.6¢

Spread1.2¢ (33.3%)

Change 24h-69.90pt

Change 7d-85.40pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$336,864

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$359 / $1,240

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)36

Liquidity score44.8 / 100

RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-4.24

RSI (14, hourly)25.3

Realized vol 7d4.20pt

Change 1h-1.65pt

Resolves in 0d 0h.

Time to resolve0d 0h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%