← Explore · Market 3145213
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 26, 2026?
88.5% implied · bid 87.0¢ · ask 90.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability94.0%
Bid / ask / mid87.0¢ / 90.0¢ / 88.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-2.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 81% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$304
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$181 / $436
Imbalance81% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.65
RSI (14, hourly)28.6
Realized vol 7d0.58pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2d 2h.
Time to resolve2d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%