← Explore · Market 3145216
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026?
90.5% implied · bid 87.0¢ · ask 94.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 91.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability91.0%
Bid / ask / mid87.0¢ / 94.0¢ / 90.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (7.7%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 57% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$225
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$92 / $532
Imbalance57% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.66
RSI (14, hourly)54.5
Realized vol 7d1.66pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 2h.
Time to resolve5d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%