← Explore · Market 3145218
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026?
91.0% implied · bid 90.0¢ · ask 92.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 93.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability93.0%
Bid / ask / mid90.0¢ / 92.0¢ / 91.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 57% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$353
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$594 / $1,101
Imbalance57% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.53
RSI (14, hourly)54.5
Realized vol 7d0.44pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 2h.
Time to resolve7d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%