← Explore · Market 3192360
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?
10.8% implied · bid 10.7¢ · ask 10.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.0%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.7¢ / 10.8¢ / 10.8¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.9%)
Change 24h+7.50pt
Change 7d+4.25pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,275
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$118 / $55
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 24 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.83
RSI (14, hourly)23.6
Realized vol 7d1.45pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 2h.
Time to resolve7d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%