← Explore · Market 3192361
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?
81.0% implied · bid 80.0¢ · ask 82.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 80.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid80.0¢ / 82.0¢ / 81.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d-6.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 65% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$76
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,301 / $1,094
Imbalance65% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.09
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.87pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 68d 2h.
Time to resolve68d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%