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← Explore · Market 3192362

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?

96.3% implied · bid 95.8¢ · ask 96.8¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 95.1%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability95.1%
Bid / ask / mid95.8¢ / 96.8¢ / 96.3¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.0%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-0.85pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 60/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 23% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,026 / $25,377
Imbalance23% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score60.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.90
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.45pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth