← Explore · Market 3206940

Macron out by December 31, 2026?

3.8% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 4.6¢

The market prices this at 3.0%, down 1.2pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.

Implied probability3.0%

Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 4.6¢ / 3.8¢

Spread1.6¢ (42.1%)

Change 24h-1.15pt

Change 7d-0.90pt

Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,922

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$99 / $1,086

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score42.6 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.64

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.67pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%