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Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?

6.1% implied · bid 1.3¢ · ask 10.9¢

The market prices this at 6.4%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 9.6¢ spread.

Implied probability6.4%

Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 10.9¢ / 6.1¢

Spread9.6¢ (157.4%)

Change 24h-1.95pt

Change 7d+2.80pt

Thin (score 2/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,048

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $17

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score2.0 / 100

RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.66

RSI (14, hourly)51.1

Realized vol 7d1.91pt

Change 1h+0.05pt

Resolves in 6d 22h.

Time to resolve6d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%