← Explore · Market 3210141
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?
83.5% implied · bid 83.0¢ · ask 84.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 84.0%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability84.0%
Bid / ask / mid83.0¢ / 84.0¢ / 83.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+4.50pt
Change 7d+33.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 49% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,307
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$798 / $341
Imbalance49% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.03
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d2.04pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 22h.
Time to resolve6d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%