← Explore · Market 3210142
Will Claude go down 11-13 times in August?
4.3% implied · bid 1.9¢ · ask 6.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.6%, down 3.4pt over 24h, on a 4.9¢ spread.
Implied probability3.6%
Bid / ask / mid1.9¢ / 6.8¢ / 4.3¢
Spread4.9¢ (112.6%)
Change 24h-3.35pt
Change 7d-31.95pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 26/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$526
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5 / $7
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 23 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.03
RSI (14, hourly)23.5
Realized vol 7d1.66pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 22h.
Time to resolve6d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%