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Will Claude go down 14+ times in August?

3.5% implied · bid 1.4¢ · ask 5.5¢

The market prices this at 1.0%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 4.1¢ spread.

Implied probability1.0%

Bid / ask / mid1.4¢ / 5.5¢ / 3.5¢

Spread4.1¢ (118.8%)

Change 24h-1.65pt

Change 7d-3.50pt

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,407

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4 / $3

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score29.5 / 100

RSI 82 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.86

RSI (14, hourly)81.8

Realized vol 7d0.59pt

Change 1h+0.15pt

Resolves in 6d 22h.

Time to resolve6d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%