← Explore · Market 3212410
Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?
79.0% implied · bid 78.0¢ · ask 80.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 77.0%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability77.0%
Bid / ask / mid78.0¢ / 80.0¢ / 79.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h+7.50pt
Change 7d+37.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,620
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$883 / $1,383
Imbalance20% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 92 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.34
RSI (14, hourly)92.3
Realized vol 7d1.74pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 22h.
Time to resolve6d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%