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← Explore · Market 3213958

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $700B and $800B on August 31?

21.0% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 22.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 18.0%, up 14.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+14.00pt
Change 7d+4.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,386
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$111 / $106
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 79 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.44
RSI (14, hourly)79.2
Realized vol 7d2.11pt
Change 1h+0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 6d 22h.

Time to resolve6d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth