← Explore · Market 3215074

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

2.5% implied · bid 2.3¢ · ask 2.8¢

The market prices this at 2.3%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.

Implied probability2.3%

Bid / ask / mid2.3¢ / 2.8¢ / 2.5¢

Spread0.5¢ (19.6%)

Change 24h+0.15pt

Change 7d-0.70pt

Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$13,675

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,550 / $7,823

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score55.7 / 100

RSI 65 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.70

RSI (14, hourly)65.2

Realized vol 7d0.08pt

Change 1h-0.15pt

Resolves in 37d 2h.

Time to resolve37d 2h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%