← Explore · Market 3240695
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026?
1.4% implied · bid 1.0¢ · ask 1.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.8%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability0.8%
Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 1.8¢ / 1.4¢
Spread0.8¢ (57.1%)
Change 24h-0.45pt
Change 7d-2.05pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$335
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$29 / $200
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.32
RSI (14, hourly)62.5
Realized vol 7d0.12pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 2h.
Time to resolve7d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%