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← Explore · Market 3247642

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

21.5% implied · bid 21.0¢ · ask 22.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 21.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability21.0%
Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.7%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7d-9.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$50,631
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,472 / $4,034
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)7
Liquidity score48.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.76
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.56pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 37d 2h.

Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth