← Explore · Market 3247642
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
21.5% implied · bid 21.0¢ · ask 22.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability21.0%
Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.7%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7d-9.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$50,631
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,472 / $4,034
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)7
Liquidity score48.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.76
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.56pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 37d 2h.
Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%