← Explore · Market 3253033
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026?
7.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 9.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 7.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (40.0%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$66
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$88 / $31
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.21
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.82pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 5d 2h.
Time to resolve5d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%