← Explore · Market 3324625
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
2.1% implied · bid 2.0¢ · ask 2.1¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.9%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability1.9%
Bid / ask / mid2.0¢ / 2.1¢ / 2.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (4.9%)
Change 24h-0.40pt
Change 7d-6.95pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,722
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$900 / $1,244
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score50.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.18
RSI (14, hourly)37.5
Realized vol 7d0.36pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 2h.
Time to resolve7d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%