← Explore · Market 3347840
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 49.0 in August?
18.3% implied · bid 15.4¢ · ask 21.1¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.8%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 5.7¢ spread.
Implied probability17.8%
Bid / ask / mid15.4¢ / 21.1¢ / 18.3¢
Spread5.7¢ (31.2%)
Change 24h-1.55pt
Change 7d+4.30pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 22/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$60
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$27 / $49
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score21.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 31 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.82
RSI (14, hourly)30.9
Realized vol 7d4.38pt
Change 1h-0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 4h.
Time to resolve3d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%