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Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?

51.5% implied · bid 51.0¢ · ask 52.0¢

The market prices this at 51.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability51.0%

Bid / ask / mid51.0¢ / 52.0¢ / 51.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.9%)

Change 24h+4.00pt

Change 7d+5.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$862

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$100 / $71

Imbalance8% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.1 / 100

RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.16

RSI (14, hourly)66.7

Realized vol 7d1.95pt

Change 1h-1.00pt

Resolves in 3d 4h.

Time to resolve3d 4h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%