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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?

11.0% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 12.0¢

The market prices this at 10.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability10.0%

Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (18.2%)

Change 24h+4.00pt

Change 7d-18.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$15,433

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$539 / $275

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score40.4 / 100

RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.57

RSI (14, hourly)21.4

Realized vol 7d1.51pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 7d 2h.

Time to resolve7d 2h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%