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← Explore · Market 3372746

Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?

94.5% implied · bid 93.0¢ · ask 96.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 94.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability94.0%
Bid / ask / mid93.0¢ / 96.0¢ / 94.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.2%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+17.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 97% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$7,606
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$697 / $2,311
Imbalance97% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 83 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.25
RSI (14, hourly)83.3
Realized vol 7d1.26pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth