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← Explore · Market 3379789

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?

42.0% implied · bid 41.0¢ · ask 43.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 43.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability43.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 43.0¢ / 42.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.8%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d-21.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 34% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$745
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,246 / $29
Imbalance34% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 73 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.32
RSI (14, hourly)72.7
Realized vol 7d1.59pt
Change 1h-0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 22d 2h.

Time to resolve22d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth