← Explore · Market 3399450
Iran leadership change by October 31?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,055 / $2,982
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.22
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 68d 2h.
Time to resolve68d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%