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Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

40.5% implied · bid 40.0¢ · ask 41.0¢

The market prices this at 40.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability40.0%

Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 40.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (2.5%)

Change 24h+2.00pt

Change 7d-18.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,986

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,041 / $639

Imbalance15% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score45.8 / 100

RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.58

RSI (14, hourly)17.1

Realized vol 7d1.62pt

Change 1h+0.50pt

Resolves in 37d 2h.

Time to resolve37d 2h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%