← Explore · Market 3517858
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
18.5% implied · bid 18.0¢ · ask 19.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.4%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$45
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$352 / $1,108
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.11
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.87pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 68d 2h.
Time to resolve68d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%