← Explore · Market 3553883
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
35.5% implied · bid 34.0¢ · ask 37.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 37.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability37.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 35.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (8.5%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7d-10.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 21% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,193
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$255 / $145
Imbalance21% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 27 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.97
RSI (14, hourly)26.7
Realized vol 7d1.77pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 128d 22h.
Time to resolve128d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%