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← Explore · Market 3584200

Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?

47.5% implied · bid 46.0¢ · ask 49.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 49.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability49.0%
Bid / ask / mid46.0¢ / 49.0¢ / 47.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (6.3%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+1.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$179
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$48 / $97
Imbalance20% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.14
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.81pt
Change 1h+0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 68d 2h.

Time to resolve68d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth