a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 3584209

Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026?

55.5% implied · bid 52.0¢ · ask 59.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 65.0%, down 4.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.

Implied probability65.0%
Bid / ask / mid52.0¢ / 59.0¢ / 55.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (12.6%)
Change 24h-4.50pt
Change 7d-5.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$6
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2 / $4
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 9 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.71
RSI (14, hourly)9.1
Realized vol 7d1.01pt
Change 1h-0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 98d 3h.

Time to resolve98d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth